## Lesson 85 – The elements of hypothesis testing

Joe and Devine are having a casual conversation in a coffee shop. While Devine orders his usual espresso, Joe orders a new item on the card, the memory booster mocha.

Devine: Do you think this “memory booster” will work?

Joe: Apparently, their success rate is 75%, and they advertise that they are better than chance.

Devine: Hmm. So we can consider you as a subject of the experiment and test their claim.

Joe: Like a hypothesis test?

Devine: Yes. We can collect the data from all the subjects who participated in the test and verify, statistically, if their 75% is sufficiently different from the random chance of 50%.

Joe: Is there a formal way to prove this?

Devine: Once we collect the data, we can compute the probability of the data under the assumption of a null hypothesis, and if this probability is less than a certain threshold, we can say with some confidence that the data is incompatible with the null hypothesis. We can reject the null hypothesis. You must be familiar with “proof by contradiction” from your classes in logic.

Joe: Null hypothesis? How do we establish that? Moreover, there will be a lot of sampling variability, and depending on what sample we get, the results may be different. How can there be a complete contradiction?

Devine: That is a good point, Joe. It is possible to get samples that will show no memory-boosting effect, in which case, we cannot contradict. Since we are basing our decisions on the probability calculated from the sample data given a null hypothesis, we should say we are proving by low-probability. It is possible that we err on our decision š

Joe: There seem to be several concepts here that I may have to understand carefully. Can we dissect them and take it sip-by-sip!

Devine: Absolutely. Let’s go over the essential elements of hypothesis tests today and then, in the following weeks, we can dig deeper. I will introduce you to some new terms today, but we will learn about their details in later lessons. The hypothesis testing concepts are vast. While we may only look at the surface, we will emphasize the philosophical underpinnings that will give you the required arsenal to go forward.

Joe: š š š

Devine: Let’s start with a simple classification of the various types of hypothesis tests; one-sample tests and two or more sample tests.

A one-sample hypothesis is a statement about the parameter of the population; or, it is a statement about the probability distribution of a random variable.

Our discussion today is on whether or not a certain proportion of subjects taking the memory-boosting mocha improve their memory. The test is to see if this proportion is significantly different from 50%. We are verifying whether the parameter (proportion, p) is equal to or different from 50%. So it is a one-sample hypothesis test.

The value that we compare the parameter on can be based on experience or knowledge of the process, based on some theory, or based on some design considerations or obligations. If it is based on experience or prior knowledge of the process, then we are verifying whether or not the parameter has changed. If it is based on some theory, then we are testing the theory. Our coffee example will fall under this criterion. We know that random chance means a 50% probability of improving (or not) the memory. So we test the proportion against this model; p = 0.5. If the parameter is compared against a value based on some design consideration or obligation, then we are testing for compliance.

Sometimes, we have to test one sample against another sample. For example, people who take the memory-boosting test from New York City may be compared with people taking the test from San Fransisco. This type of test is a two or multiple sample hypothesis test where we determine whether a random variable differs in its parameter among the two or more groups.

Joe: So, that is one-sample tests or two-sample tests.

Devine: Yes. Now, for any of these two types, we can further classify them into parametric tests or nonparametric tests.

If we assume that the data has a particular probability distribution, the test can be developed based on this probability distribution. These are called parametric tests.

If a probability distribution is appropriate for the data, then, the information contained in the data can be summarized using the parameters of this distribution; like the mean, standard deviation, proportion, etc. The hypothesis test can be designed using these parameters. The entire process becomes very efficient since we already know the mathematical formulations. In our case, since we are testing for proportion, we can assume a binomial distribution to derive the probabilities.

Joe: What if the data does not follow the distribution that we assume?

Devine: This is possible. If we make incorrect assumptions regarding the probability distributions, the parameters that we use to summarize the data are at best, a poor representation of the data, which will result in incorrect conclusions.

Joe: So I believe the nonparametric tests are an alternative to this.

Devine: That is correct. There are hypothesis tests that do not require the assumption that the data follow a particular probability distribution. Do you recall the bootstrap where we used the data to approximate the probability distribution function of the population?

Joe: Yes, I remember that. We did not have to make any assumption for deriving the confidence intervals.

Devine: Exactly. These type of tests are called nonparametric hypothesis tests. Information is efficiently extracted from the data without summarizing them into their statistics or parameters.

Here, I prepared a simple chart to show these classifications.

Joe: Is there a systematic process for the hypothesis test? Are there steps that I can follow?

Devine: Of course. We can follow these five steps for any hypothesis test. Let’s use our memory-booster test as a case in point as we elaborate on these steps.

1. Choose the appropriate test; one-sample or two-sample and parametric or nonparametric.

2. Establish the null and alternate hypothesis.

3. Decide on an acceptable rate of error or rejection rate ().

4. Compute the test statistic and its corresponding p-value from the observed data.

5. Make the decision; Reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than the acceptable rate of error, . 

Joe: Awesome. We discussed the choice of the test — one-sample or two-sample; parametric vs. nonparametric. The choice between parametric or nonparametric test should be based on the expected distribution of the data.

Devine: Yes, if we are comfortable with the assumption of a probability distribution for the data, a parametric test may be used. If there is little
information about the prior process, then it is beneficial to use the nonparametric tests. Nonparametric tests are also especially appropriate for small data sets.

As I already told you, we can assume a binomial distribution for the data on the number of people showing signs of improvement after taking the memory-boosting mocha.

Suppose ten people take the test, the probabilities can be derived from a binomial distribution with n = 10 and p = 0.5. The null distribution, i.e., what may happen by chance is a binomial distribution with n = 10 and p = 0.5, and we can check how far out on this distribution is our observed proportion.

Joe: What about the alternate hypothesis?

Devine: If the null hypothesis is that the memory-booster has no impact, we would expect, on average, a 50% probability of success, i.e., around 5 out of 10 people will see the effect purely by chance. Now, the coffee shop claims that their new product is effective, beyond random possibility. We call this claim the alternate hypothesis.

The null hypothesis () is that p = 0.5

The alternate hypothesis () is that p > 0.5.

The null hypothesis is usually denoted as , and the alternate hypothesis is denoted as .

The null hypothesis () is what is assumed to be true before any evidence from data. It is usually the null situation that has to be disproved otherwise. Null has the meaning of “no effect,” or “of no consequence.”

is identified with the hypothesis of no change from the current belief.

The alternate hypothesis () is the situation that is anticipated to be true if the data (empirical evidence) shows that the null hypothesis () is unlikely.

The alternate hypothesis can be of two types, the one-sided alternative or the two-sided alternative.

The two-sided alternative can be considered when evidence in either direction (values larger than or smaller than the accepted level) would cause the rejection of the null hypothesis. The one-sided alternative is considered when the departures in one direction (either less than or greater than) are sufficient to reject .

Our test is a one-sided alternative hypothesis test. The proportion of people who would benefit from the memory-booster coffee is greater than the proportion who would claim benefit randomly.

It is usually the case that the null hypothesis is the favored claim. The onus of proof is on the alternative, i.e., we will continue to believe in , the status quo unless the experimental evidence strongly contradicts it; proof by low-probability.

Joe: Understood. In step 3, I see there are some new terms, the acceptable rate of error, rejection rate . What is this?

Devine: Think about the possible outcomes of your hypothesis test.

Joe: We will either reject the null hypothesis or accept the null hypothesis.

Devine: Right. Let’s say we either reject the null hypothesis or fail to reject the null hypothesis if the data is inconclusive. Now, would your decision always be correct?

Joe: Not necessary??

Devine: Let’s say the memory-booster is false, and we know that for sure. But, the people who took the test claim that their memory improved, then we would have rejected the null hypothesis for the alternate. However, we know that coffee should not have any effect. We know is true, but, based on the sample, we had to reject it. We committed an error. This kind of error is called a Type I error. Let’s call this error, the rejection rate . There is a certain probability that this will happen, and we select this rejection rate. Assume .

A 5% rejection rate implies that we are rejecting the null hypothesis 5% of the times when in fact is true.

Now, in reality, we will not know whether or not is true. The choice of is the risk taken by us for rejecting the truth. If we choose , a 5% rejection rate, we choose to reject the null hypothesis 5% of the times.

In hypothesis tests, it is a common practice to set at 5%. However, can also be chosen to have a higher or lower rejection rate.

Suppose , we will only reject the null hypothesis 1% of the times. There needs to be greater proof to reject the null. If you want to save yourself that extra dollar, you would like to see a greater proof, a lower rejection rate. The coffee shop would perhaps like to choose . They want to reject the null hypothesis more often, so they can show value in their new product.

Joe: I think I understand. But some things are still not evident.

Devine: Don’t worry. We will get to the bottom of it as we do more and more hypothesis tests. There is another kind of error, the second type, Type II. It is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false. For example, suppose the coffee does boost the memory, but a sample of people did not show that effect, we would fail to reject the null hypothesis. In this case, we would have committed a Type II error.

Type II error is also called the lack of power in the test.

Some attention to these two Types shows that Type I and Type II errors are inversely related.

If Type I error is high, i.e., if we choose high , then Type II error will be low. Alternately, if we want a low value, then Type II error will be high.

Joe: š š š

Devine: I promise. These things will be evident as we discuss more. Let me show all these possibilities in a table.

Joe: Two more steps. What are the test statistic and the p-value?

Devine: The test statistic summarizes the information in the data. For example, suppose out of ten people who took the test, 9 reported a positive effect, we would take nine as the test statistic, and compute as the p-value. In a Binomial null distribution with n = 10 and p = 0.5, what is the probability of getting a value that is as large or greater than 9? If the value has a sufficiently low probability, we can say that it may occur by chance.

If this statistic, 9, is not significantly different from what is expected in the null hypothesis, then cannot be rejected.

The p-value is the probability of obtaining the computed test statistics under the null hypothesis. It is the evidence or lack thereof against the null hypothesis. The smaller the p-value, the less likely the observed statistic under the null hypothesis ā and stronger evidence of rejecting the null.

Here, I computed the probabilities from the binomial distribution, and I am showing it as a null distribution. , the p-value is shaded. Its value is 0.0107.

Joe: I see. Decision time. If I select a rejection rate of 5%, since the p-value is less than 5%, I have to reject the null hypothesis. If I picked an value of 1%, I cannot reject the null hypothesis. At the 1% rejection rate, 9 out of 10 is not strong enough evidence for rejection. We need much higher proof.

Devine: Excellent. What we went through now is the procedure for any hypothesis test. Over the next few weeks, we will undertake several examples that will need a step-by-step hypothesis test to understand the evidence and make decisions. We will also learn the concepts of Type I and Type II errors at length. Till then, here is a summary of the steps.

1. Choose the appropriate test; one-sample or two-sample and parametric or nonparametric.

2. Establish the null and alternate hypothesis.

3. Decide on an acceptable rate of error or rejection rate ().

4. Compute the test statistic and its corresponding p-value from the observed data.

5. Make the decision; Reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than the acceptable rate of error, . 

And remember,

The null hypothesis is never “accepted,” or proven to be true. It is assumed to be true until proven otherwise and is “not rejected” when there is insufficient evidence to do so.

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## Lesson 84 – Beyond a reasonable doubt: Introducing hypothesis tests

Tom grew up in the City of Ruritania. He went to high school there, met his wife there, and has a happy home. Ruritania, the land of natural springs is known for its pristine water. Lately, he has been sensing a decline in the quality of his tap water. It is a scary feeling as the consequences are slow. He starts associating the cause of the poor water quality to this new factory in his neighborhood.

You are Tom’s best friend. Seeing him be concerned, you took upon yourself, the responsibility of evaluating whether or not, the addition of this new factory in Tom’s neighborhood reduced the quality of water compared to historical water quality in the area. How would you test if there is a significant deviation from the historical average water quality?

Tom’s house is alongside the west branch of the Mohawk River and is downstream of this factory. You checked the EPA specifications for dissolved oxygen concentration in the river, and it is required by the EPA to have a minimum average concentration of 2mg/L. Over the next 10 days, you collected 10 water samples from the west branch. In mg/L, your data reads like this.

1.8, 2, 2.1, 1.7, 1.2, 2.3, 2.5, 2.9, 1.9, 2.2.

Is the river water quality satisfactory by the EPA standards?

In this whole investigative process, you also happened to collect water samples from the east branch of the Mohawk. The east branch is farther from the factory. How would you determine whether the concentrations of the contaminant (if any) in the two rivers are similar or different?

I think you are grasping the significance of the issues here. You need evidence beyond a reasonable doubt.

For Tom, you have collected data to make inference about the underlying process. The data sample represents that process. You may be having some prior idea on what happened or what changed. Let’s say you have a hypothesis.

You can test your hypothesis or prior assumption/idea by performing hypothesis tests using the data collected.

A hypothesis is a statement about something you are observing. In our language, it is a statement about one or more parameters of the population.

The hypothesis has to be substantiated with evidence provided from the data.

Statistical hypothesis tests provide a quantitative way of substantiating the belief or rejecting them or modifying the original hypothesis. In other words, a hypothesis test is a quantitative approach to determine whether your speculation can be substantiated.

The strength of the evidence can be measured and you can decide on whether or not to reject the hypothesis based on some risk measure, the risk that your decision may be incorrect.

Take Tom’s issue for instance. You may collect data on the current water quality and test it against the historical average water quality. You may start with a prior belief, a hypothesis that the water quality did not change since the inception of the new factory, i.e., there is no difference between current water quality and historical water quality in Ruritania. Any odd differences you see in the data are purely by chance. The non-existence of any difference is your null hypothesis.

You set this up against the alternate hypothesis that there is a change in the water quality since the inception of the factory, and it may not be purely due to chance. If there is evidence of a significant change, you can reject the prior belief, i.e., you can reject the null hypothesis for the alternate.

If there is no significant change, then, we cannot reject the null hypothesis. We continue to believe that the odd differences that were observed may be due to chance. This way, the change may be linked to its cause in a reverse fashion. Anyone who uses this data and the testing method should arrive at the same result.

Over the next few weeks, we will learn the main concepts of hypothesis tests. We will learn how to test sample data against a true value, how to test whether or not there are differences in two or more groups of data, and the various types of hypothesis tests, parametric if the data follows a particular distribution, and non-parametric, where we go distribution free and let the data explain the underlying differences.

So brace yourself for this exciting investigative journey where we try to disprove or refine our beliefs amidst uncertainty. “Beyond a reasonable doubt” is our credo. Whether you want to be Mr. Sherlock Holmes or Dr. Watson or Brother William of Baskerville is up to you.

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## Lesson 83 – The trees of New York

Prequel to “Riding with confidence, in R”

Saturday, February 9, 2019

In which Jenny reads Robert Frost and stumbles upon the trees of New York. She designs her next three lessons to demonstrate confidence intervals and various sampling strategies using R and the trees of New York.

Her head swayed towards her shoulder and she looked over the window, when, for the first time, she paid attention to the tree outside her apartment.

Blessing Lilies and Classic Dendrobium, all she had from Michael’s Emporium. Oaks and Pears and Crabapples, never once she heeds in the Big Apple.

“Alas, the trees are ubiquitous in this concrete jungle,” she thought, as she immediately resorted to NYC Open Data.

“A place that hosts our building footprints to the T should definitely have something on the trees,” she thought.

Sure enough. The 2015 Street Tree Census, the Tree Data for the Big Apple is available. It was conducted by volunteers and staff organized by NYC Parks and Recreations and partner organizations. Tree species, its diameter, and its perceived health are available along with a suite of accompanying data.

She immediately downloaded the master file and started playing around with it.

“This is a very big file and will need a lot of memory to load,” she thought. Hence, with the most important details, she created an abridged version and uploaded it here for you.

She fires up RStudio on her computer and immediately reads the file into her workspace.

# Reading the tree data file # nyc_trees = read.csv("2015StreetTreesCensus_TREES_abridged.csv",header=T)

“I wonder how many trees are there in the City.” The answer is 683,788.

nrow(nyc_trees)

In a city with 8.54 million, there is a tree for every twelve.

“What would be their types?” she asked.

# Types of trees # types = table(nyc_trees$spc_common) pie(types,radius=1,cex=0.75,font=2) sort(types) 133 different species with the top 5 being London planetree (87014), Honeylocust (64264), Callery pear (58931), Pink oak (53185) and Norway maple (34189). “Wow! There are 87014 London planetrees in the City. Let me check out the population characteristics,” she thought as she typed a few lines. ## London planetree (87014) ## # locating London planetrees (lpt) in the data file # lpt_index = which(nyc_trees$spc_common == "London planetree")#create a separate data frame for london planetrees #lpt = nyc_trees[lpt_index,]# London planetree Population # N = nrow(lpt) lpt_true_distribution_diam = lpt$tree_dbh# True Mean # lpt_true_mu = mean(lpt_true_distribution_diam)# True Variance # lpt_true_var = mean((lpt_true_distribution_diam - lpt_true_mu)^2)# True Standard Deviation lpt_true_sd = sqrt(lpt_true_var)# True Proportion of Light Damaged lpts # lpt_damaged = which(lpt$brnch_ligh=="Yes") lpt_true_damage_proportion = length(lpt_damaged)/N# Plot the full distributionboxplot(lpt_true_distribution_diam,horizontal=T,font=2,font.lab=2,boxwex=0.25,col="green",main="Diameter of London planetrees (inces)")

She first identified the row index for London planetree, created a separate data frame “lpt” for these trees using these indices and then computed the true mean, true variance and standard deviation of the tree diameters.

= 21.56 inches

= 81.96

= 9.05 inches

She also noticed that there is a column for whether or not the tree is damaged due to lighting. She computed the true proportion of this.

p = 0.14

Then, as she always does, created a boxplot to check out the full distribution of the data.

“What about Manhattan,” she thought. You are not living in the city if you are not from Manhattan. So she counts the number of trees in each borough and their percentages.

## Count the number of trees in each borough ## manhattan_index = which(lpt$borocode==1) bronx_index = which(lpt$borocode==2) brooklyn_index = which(lpt$borocode==3) queens_index = which(lpt$borocode==4) staten_index = which(lpt$borocode==5) n_manhattan = length(manhattan_index) n_bronx = length(bronx_index) n_brooklyn = length(brooklyn_index) n_queens = length(queens_index) n_staten = length(staten_index) n_boro = c(n_manhattan,n_bronx,n_brooklyn,n_queens,n_staten) barplot(n_boro) p_boro = (n_boro/N) barplot(p_boro,names.arg = c("Manhattan","Bronx", "Brooklyn", "Queens", "Staten Island"),font=2) “Hmm š Let Manhattan at least have the old trees,” she prays and types the following lines to create a map of the trees and their diameters. She also wants to check where the damaged trees are. There are some libraries required for making maps in R. If you don’t have them, you should install first using install.packages() command. Jenny is plotting the diameter. plotvar. The other lines are cosmetics, liners, lipsticks, and blush. ## Plot of London planetrees ## library(maps) library(maptools) library(RColorBrewer) library(classInt) library(gpclib) library(mapdata) library(fields) par(mfrow=c(1,2))# plot 1: diameter plotvar <- lpt_true_distribution_diam nclr <- 6 # Define number of colours to be used in plot plotclr <- brewer.pal(nclr,"Greens") # Define colour palette to be used# Define colour intervals and colour code variable for plotting class <- classIntervals(plotvar, nclr, style = "quantile") colcode <- findColours(class, plotclr) plot(lpt$longitude,lpt$Latitude,cex=0.15,pch=15, col = colcode, xlab="",ylab="",axes=F,font=2,font.lab=2) map("county",region="New York",add=T) box() title("London Planetrees") legend("topleft", legend = names(attr(colcode, "table")), fill = attr(colcode, "palette"), cex = 1, bty = "n",title="Diameter (inches)")# plot 2: show damaged trees plotvar <- lpt_true_distribution_diam ind_1 = which(lpt$brnch_ligh=="Yes") nclr <- 6 # Define number of colours to be used in plot plotclr <- brewer.pal(nclr,"Greens") # Define colour palette to be used# Define colour intervals and colour code variable for plotting class <- classIntervals(plotvar, nclr, style = "quantile") colcode <- findColours(class, plotclr) plot(lpt$longitude,lpt$Latitude,cex=0,pch=15, col = colcode, xlab="",ylab="",axes=F,font=2,font.lab=2) points(lpt$longitude[ind_1],lpt$Latitude[ind_1],pch=20,cex=0.1) map("county",region="New York",add=T) box() title("London Planetrees - Damaged")

The older trees belong mostly to Queens and Brooklyn; so do the damaged trees.

“This will make for a nice example of sampling bias, confidence intervals, and sampling strategies,” she thought as she noticed that the trees with smaller diameters are in Manhattan.

“If we only sample from Manhattan, it will clearly result in a bias in estimation of the population characteristics. Manhattan sample is not fully representative of the population or the true distribution,” she thought.

“Let me compare the population to the sample distributions from the five boroughs.”

She first separates the data for each borough and plots them against the true distribution.

## Breakdown by Borough lpt_manhattan = lpt[manhattan_index,] lpt_bronx = lpt[bronx_index,] lpt_brooklyn = lpt[brooklyn_index,] lpt_queens = lpt[queens_index,] lpt_staten = lpt[staten_index,]# Plotting the population and borough wise samples ##boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,7),ylim=c(-100,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)") boxplot(lpt_manhattan$tree_dbh,horizontal = T,add=T,at=2,col="red") text(-50,2,"Manhattan") boxplot(lpt_bronx$tree_dbh,horizontal = T,add=T,at=3,col="pink") text(-50,3,"Bronx") boxplot(lpt_brooklyn$tree_dbh,horizontal = T,add=T,at=4) text(-50,4,"Brooklyn") boxplot(lpt_queens$tree_dbh,horizontal = T,add=T,at=5) text(-50,5,"Queens") boxplot(lpt_staten$tree_dbh,horizontal = T,add=T,at=6) text(-60,6,"Staten Island") abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2) text(30,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches")

“Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island resemble the population distribution. Manhattan and the Bronx are biased. If we want to understand the population characteristics, we need a random sample that covers all the five boroughs. The data seems to be stratified. Why don’t I sample data using different strategies and see how closely they represent the population,” she thought.

#### Simple Random Sampling

She starts with simple random sampling.

“I will use all five boroughs as my sampling frame. Each of these 87014 trees has an equal chance of being selected. Let me randomly select 30 trees from this frame using sampling without replacement. To show the variety, I will repeat this 10 times.”

She types up a few lines to execute this strategy.

# 1: Simple Random Sample population_index = 1:N ntimes = 10 nsamples = 30 simple_random_samples = matrix(NA,nrow=nsamples,ncol=ntimes) for (i in 1:ntimes) {   # a random sample of 30 #    sample_index = sample(population_index,nsamples,replace=F)   simple_random_samples[,i] = lpt$tree_dbh[sample_index] }boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,11),ylim=c(-100,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)",main="Simple Random Sampling") boxplot(simple_random_samples,horizontal = T,boxwex=0.5,add=T,at=c(2:11),col="pink") abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2,col="red") text(30,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches")

The sampling is done ten times. These ten samples are shown in the pink boxes against the true distribution, the green box.

Most of the samples cover the true distribution. It is safe to say that the simple random sampling method is providing a reasonable representation of the population.

#### Stratified Random Sampling

“Let me now divide the population into strata or groups. I will have separate sampling frames for the five boroughs and will do a simple random sampling from each stratum. Since I know the percentages of the trees in each borough, I can roughly sample in that proportion and combine all the samples from the strata into a full representative sample. An inference from this combined samples is what has to be done, not on individual strata samples.”

# 2: Stratified Random Sample population_index = 1:N ntimes = 10 nsamples = 100 stratified_random_samples = matrix(NA,nrow=nsamples,ncol=ntimes) for (i in 1:ntimes) {   # Manhattan #    ns_manhattan = round(nsamples*p_boro[1])      ns_bronx = round(nsamples*p_boro[2])   ns_brooklyn = round(nsamples*p_boro[3])      ns_queens = round(nsamples*p_boro[4])   ns_staten = nsamples - sum(ns_manhattan,ns_bronx,ns_brooklyn,ns_queens)    sample_manhattan = sample(manhattan_index,ns_manhattan,replace=F)   sample_bronx = sample(bronx_index,ns_bronx,replace=F)   sample_brooklyn = sample(brooklyn_index,ns_brooklyn,replace=F)   sample_queens = sample(queens_index,ns_queens,replace=F)   sample_staten = sample(staten_index,ns_staten,replace=F)    full_sample = c(lpt$tree_dbh[sample_manhattan],lpt$tree_dbh[sample_bronx],lpt$tree_dbh[sample_brooklyn],lpt$tree_dbh[sample_queens],lpt$tree_dbh[sample_staten]) stratified_random_samples[,i] = full_sample }boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,11),ylim=c(-100,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)",main="Stratified Random Sampling")boxplot(stratified_random_samples,horizontal = T,boxwex=0.5,add=T,at=c(2:11),col="pink") abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2,col="red") text(30,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches")

Again, pretty good representation.

She was curious as to where Manhattan is in these samples. So she types a few lines to create this simple animation.

## Animation ## for (i in 1:10) { boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,boxwex=0.3,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,2),ylim=c(0,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)",main="Stratified Random Sampling") abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2,col="red") text(50,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches") legend(250,2,cex=0.76,pch=0,col="red","Manhattan") stripchart(stratified_random_samples[6:100,i],add=T,at=1.5,cex=0.6,col="blue")stripchart(stratified_random_samples[1:5,i],add=T,at=1.5,cex=0.75,col="red")Sys.sleep(1) } The animation is showing the samples each time. Manhattan samples are shown in red. Did you notice that the Manhattan samples are mostly from the left tail? Unless it is combined with the other strata, we will not get a full representative sample. #### Cluster Random Sampling “Both of these methods seem to give good representative samples. Let me now check the cluster random sampling method. We have the zip codes for each tree. So I will imagine that each zip code is a cluster and randomly select some zip codes using the simple random sampling method. All the trees in these zip codes will then be my sample.” This is her code for the cluster sampling method. She first identifies all the zip codes and then randomly samples from them. # 3: Cluster Random Sample zips = table(lpt$zipcode) list_zips = as.numeric(names(zips)) list_zips = list_zips[-1] ntimes = 10 nsamples = 10 cluster_random_samples =  NULL for (i in 1:ntimes) {   cluster_index = sample(list_zips,nsamples,replace=F)   cluster_sample = NULL   for (j in 1:length(cluster_index))   {     ind = which(lpt$zipcode==cluster_index[j]) cluster_sample = c(cluster_sample,lpt$tree_dbh[ind])   }   cluster_random_samples = cbind(cluster_random_samples,cluster_sample) } boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,11),ylim=c(-100,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)",main="Cluster Random Sampling") boxplot(cluster_random_samples,horizontal = T,boxwex=0.5,add=T,at=c(2:11),col="pink",axes=F) abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2,col="red") text(30,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches") “Hmm. There seems to be one sample which is biased. It is possible. We could have selected most of the zip codes from Manhattan or the Bronx. Since there is not much variability within these clusters, we could not represent the entire population. There is a risk of running poor inferences if we use this sample. Nevertheless, most times we get a good representative sample.” #### Systematic Random Sampling “Let me also try the systematic random sampling method just for completion. I will select every 870th tree in the line up of 87014 trees. I will do this 10 times moving one up, i.e., for the second try, I will select every 871st tree and so forth. Since I am covering the full range of the data, we should get a good representation.” She types up a few simple lines. # 4: Systematic Random Sample ntimes = 10 nsamples = 100 systematic_random_samples = NULL for (i in 1:ntimes) { # a random sample of 30 # systematic_index = seq(from = i, to = N, by = round((N/nsamples))) systematic_random_samples = cbind(systematic_random_samples,lpt$tree_dbh[systematic_index]) }boxplot(lpt$tree_dbh,horizontal=T,xlim=c(0,11),ylim=c(-100,350),col="green",xlab="Diamter (inches)",main="Systematic Random Sampling") boxplot(systematic_random_samples,horizontal = T,boxwex=0.5,add=T,at=c(2:11),col="pink",axes=F) abline(v=lpt_true_mu,lty=2,col="red") text(30,0,"True Mean = 21.56 inches") Things are good for this too. “This dataset is an excellent resource to demonstrate so many concepts. I will use it to create a situational analysis for my class. I think I can show this over three weeks. Each week, I will introduce one concept. This Monday, I will take a small sample obtained from the simple random sampling method to the class. With this sample data, I will explain the basics of how to compute and visualize confidence intervals in R. I can also show how confidence intervals are derived using the bootstrap method. Then, I will send them off on a task, asking them to collect data at random from the city. It will be fun hugging trees and collecting data. I should make sure I tell them that the data has to be collected at random from the entire City, not just a few boroughs. Then, all their samples will be representative, and I can show them the probabilistic interpretation of the confidence intervals, the real meaning. After this, I will ask them to go out and take the samples again, only this time, I will emphasize that they should collect it from their respective boroughs. This means, the folks who collect data from Manhattan will bring biased samples and they will easily fall out in the confidence interval test. This will confuse them !! but it will give a good platform to explain sampling bias and the various strategies of sampling.” Someday, I shall be gone; yet, for the little I had to say, the world might bear, forever its tone. If you find this useful, please like, share and subscribe. You can also follow me on Twitter @realDevineni for updates on new lessons. ## Lesson 82 – Riding with confidence, in R: Week 3 On the eleventh day of February 2019, Jenny showed her students how to compute and visualize confidence intervals in R. Her demo included the confidence interval on the mean, variance/standard deviation, and proportions. She also presented the code to develop bootstrap confidence intervals for any parameter. All this was based on a random sample that she collected. But she wanted the students to have hands-on experience of data gathering and know the real meaning of confidence intervals, in that, for a 95% level, there is a 95% probability of selecting a sample for which the confidence interval will contain the true parameter value, or p. So she sent them out to collect data through random sampling. The 40 students each brought back samples. 40 different samples of 30 trees each. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ On the eighteenth day of February 2019, the students came back with the samples. They all developed confidence intervals from their samples. Jenny showed them how the sample mean was converging to the true mean, and that over 40 confidence intervals, roughly two (5%) may not contain the truth. They also learned how the interval shrinks as one gets more and more samples. Then, Jenny wanted them to understand the issues with sampling. So she sent them off for a second time. This time, the students divided themselves into teams, visiting different boroughs and collecting samples only from that borough. Today, they are all back with their new samples. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Monday, February 25, 2019 In which the students come back with new samples, borough wise. Jenny explains the traps due to sampling bias and the basic types of sampling strategies. It is Samantha who is always at the forefront of the class. She was leading seven other students in team Manhattan. Each of these eight students gathered data for 30 trees in Manhattan. So, they create eight different confidence intervals — representing the intervals from Manhattan. Samantha shows her example — the locations of the data that she gathered and the confidence interval of the true mean. The 95% confidence interval of the true mean diameter is “This sample may or may not contain the true mean diameter, but I know that there is a 95% probability of selecting this sample which when used to develop the confidence intervals, will contain the truth,” she said. John was heading team Bronx. He followed Samantha to show the places he visited and the confidence interval from his sample. His team also had eight students, and each of them gathered data for 30 trees from the Bronx. John strongly feels that he may be the unfortunate one whose confidence interval will not contain the truth. He may be one among the two. Let’s see. The leaders of the other three teams, Justin, Harry, and Susan also prepare their confidence intervals. They all go up to the board and display their intervals. “From last week, we know that the approximation for the true mean is 21.3575,” said Samantha as she projects the vertical line to show it. As you all know, Jenny showed last week that the sample mean was converging to 21.3575 as the samples increased. The principle of consistency. As they discuss among themselves, Jenny entered the room and gazed at the display. She knew something that the students did not know. But she concealed her amusement and passed along the file to collect the data from all 40 students. Like last week, the students fill out the file with the data they collected, borough wise. The file will have a total of 1200 row entries. Here is the file. As you have rightly observed, the boro code column is now ordered since the file went from team Manhattan to team Staten Island. Jenny used the same lines as last week to create a plot to display all the 40 confidence intervals. Assuming that the file is in the same folder you set your working directory to, you can use this line to read the data into R workspace. # Reading the tree data file from the students - boro wise #students_data_boro = read.csv("students_data_borough.csv",header=T) Use these lines to plot all the confidence intervals. # Jenny puts it all together and shows ## 40 students went to collect data from specific boroughs in NYC ## Each student collects 30 samples ## Each student develops the confidence intervals # nstudents = 40 nsamples = 30 students = 1:nstudents alpha = 0.95 t = alpha + (1-alpha)/2 sample_mean = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) sample_sd = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) ci_t = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=2) for(i in 1:nstudents) { ind = which(students_data_boro$student_index == i) sample_data = students_data_boro$tree_dbh[ind] sample_mean[i] = mean(sample_data) sample_sd[i] = sd(sample_data) cit_lb = sample_mean[i] - qt(t,df=(n-1))((sample_sd[i]/sqrt(n))) cit_ub = sample_mean[i] + qt(t,df=(n-1))((sample_sd[i]/sqrt(n))) ci_t[i,] = c(cit_lb,cit_ub) }# Plot all the CIs # stripchart(ci_t[1,],type="l",col="green",main="",xlab="Diameter (inches)",xlim=c(9,30),ylim=c(1,nstudents)) stripchart(sample_mean[1],add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_t[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i) stripchart(sample_mean[i],col="green", add=T, at = i) } Once you execute these lines, you will also see this plot in your plot space. “It looks somewhat different than the one we got last time,” said John. “Let me see how many of them will contain the truth,” he added as he typed these lines. He looks through all the confidence intervals for whether or not they cover the truth using an if statement. He calls them “false_samples.” Then, he plots all the confidence intervals once again, but this time, he uses a red color for the false samples. He also added the borough names to give a reference point. nyc_random_truth = 21.3575false_samples = students for (i in 1:nstudents) { if( (ci_t[i,1] > nyc_random_truth) || (ci_t[i,2] < nyc_random_truth) ) {false_samples[i]=1} else {false_samples[i]=0} }false_ind = which(false_samples == 1)# Plot all the CIs; now show the false samples # stripchart(ci_t[1,],type="l",col="green",main="",xlab="Diameter (inches)",xlim=c(9,30),ylim=c(1,nstudents)) stripchart(sample_mean[1],add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_t[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i) stripchart(sample_mean[i],add=T,col="green",at = i) } abline(v=nyc_random_truth,lwd=3) for (i in 1:length(false_ind)) { j = false_ind[i] stripchart(ci_t[j,],type="l",col="red",lwd=3, main="", add = T, at = j) stripchart(sample_mean[j],col="red", lwd=3, add=T, at = j) } text(18,4,"Manhattan") text(24,12,"Bronx") text(27,20,"Brooklyn") text(28,28,"Queens") text(28,37,"Staten Island") Try it yourself. You will also see this plot. The students are puzzled. Clearly, there are more than 5% intervals that do not cover the truth. Why? ### Jenny explains sampling bias Jenny now explains to them about sampling bias. She starts with a map of all the data that the students brought. We will get a more detailed explanation for creating maps in R in some later lessons. For now, you can type these lines that Jenny used to create a map. ### Full Map ### library(maps) library(maptools) library(RColorBrewer) library(classInt) library(gpclib) library(mapdata) library(fields) plotvar <- students_data_boro$tree_dbh  nclr <- 6 # Define number of colours to be used in plot  plotclr <- brewer.pal(nclr,"Greens") # Define colour palette to be used # Define colour intervals and colour code variable for plotting class <- classIntervals(plotvar, nclr, style = "quantile") colcode <- findColours(class, plotclr) plot(students_data_boro$longitude,students_data_boro$Latitude,cex=0.55,pch=15, col = colcode, xlab="Longitude",ylab="Latitude",font=2,font.lab=2) map("county",regions ="New York",add=T) title("London Planetrees") legend("topleft", legend = names(attr(colcode, "table")), fill = attr(colcode, "palette"), cex = 1, bty = "n",title="Diameter (inches)")

“Look at this map. I am showing the location of the tree based on the latitude and longitude you all recorded. Then, for each point, I am also showing the diameter of the tree using a color bar. Thick trees, i.e., those with larger diameters are shown in darker green. Likewise, thin trees are shown in lighter green. Do you notice anything?” asked Jenny.

Samantha noticed it right away. “The trees in Manhattan have smaller diameters. Mostly, they have dull green shade,” she said.

“Precisely,” Jenny continues. “The trees are not all randomly distributed. They are somewhat clustered with smaller diameters in Manhattan and Bronx and larger diameters in the other boroughs.

Since you collected all your samples from a specific borough, there is a risk of sampling bias.

We can make good inferences about the population only if the sample is representative of the population as a whole.

In other words, the distribution of the sample must be like the distribution of the population from which it comes. In our case, the trees in Manhattan are not fully representative of the entire trees in the City. There was sampling bias, a tendency to collect a sample that is not entirely representative of the population.

For team Manhattan, since the distribution of your sample is dissimilar to that of the population, your statements about the truth are not accurate. You will have a bias — poor inference.

See, the sample mean also does not converge. Even at n=1200, there is still some element of variability.

Last week when you collected data for the trees, I asked you to gather them randomly by making sure that you visit all the boroughs. In other words, I asked you to collect random samples. Randomly visiting all the boroughs will avoid the issues arising from sampling bias. They give a more representative sample and minimize the errors in the inference. That is why we did not see this bias last week.”

Are there types of sampling?” asked Justin.

Jenny replied. “At the very basic level, “simple random sampling” method, “stratified random sampling” method and “cluster random sampling” method. One of these days, I will show you how to implement these sampling strategies in R. For now let’s talk about their basics.

What you did in the first week was a simple random sampling method. Your sampling frame was all possible London planetrees in NYC. Each tree in this frame has an equal chance of being selected. From this frame, you randomly selected 30 trees. This is sampling without replacement. You did not take the measurements for the same tree two times. Computationally, what you did was to draw without replacement, a sequence of n random numbers from 1 to N. Mostly, you will get an equal proportion of trees from each borough.

Then there is the stratified random sampling method. Here, we can divide the population into strata — subpopulations or separate sampling frames. Within each frame or strata, we can do simple random sampling to collect data. The number of samples taken from each stratum or subpopulation is proportional to the size of the stratum. In other words, if we know the percent number of trees in Manhattan compared to the total number of trees, we can approximately sample that percentage from the Manhattan strata. One thing I can do is to assume that each of your teams got a simple random sample from a stratum, and combine the five teams to give me a full representative sample. An inference from this combined sampled will be more accurate than individual strata samples.

In the cluster random sampling method, we can first divide the population into clusters and then randomly select some clusters. The data from these clusters will make up the sample. Imagine that we divide the city into zip codes — each zip code is a cluster. Then we can randomly select some zip codes as part of our sampling strategy. All the trees in these zip codes make up our cluster random sample. However, if there is not much variability within each cluster, we run the risk of not representing the entire population, and hence poor inference.

We can also do systematic sampling, like selecting every 10th tree, but again, we should ensure that we cover the range. If not, we might get a biased sample.”

“How did you know that the borough wise sampling would be biased?” asked someone.

Well, for a one-line answer, you can say it was an educated guess. For a one-lesson answer, you should wait till next week.

If you find this useful, please like, share and subscribe.
You can also follow me on Twitter @realDevineni for updates on new lessons.

## Lesson 81 – Riding with confidence, in R: Week 2

Monday, February 18, 2019

In which the students come back with samples. Jenny shows them sampling distributions, the real meaning of confidence interval, and a few other exciting things using their data. She sends them off on a second task.

## Where is the Mean

#### Samantha, John, and Christina explore

Samantha: These are the London planetrees I have data for.

The confidence interval of the population mean () is the interval .

I have a sample of 30 trees. For these 30 trees, the sample mean is 20.6 inches and the sample standard deviation is 9.06 inches. Based on this, the confidence interval of is .

[17.22 inches, 23.98 inches]

John: I collected data for 30 trees too. Here is my data.

And here is the confidence interval I came up with; [17.68 inches, 24.05 inches]. For my data, the sample mean is 20.87 inches and the sample standard deviation is 8.52 inches.

Christina: I have a sample of 30 too. Here is where I took them from.

And, here is the 95% confidence interval of the mean; [19.9 inches, 24.9 inches].

Their sample statistics are different. Their confidence intervals are different. They begin to wonder whether their interval contains the truth, , or, whose interval contains the truth?

#### Jenny puts all the intervals in context

Jenny shares with the students, an empty data file with the following headers.

The students fill out the file with the data they collected last week. Her class has 40 students, so when the file came back to Jenny, it had a total of 40*30 = 1200 row entries.

Jenny uploaded this file here, for the analysis she is going to show the class.

Jenny: I am sure you all had much fun last week visiting different places in the city and collecting data for the analysis. I am hoping that all of you randomly selected the places to visit. Based on what Sam and Christina showed, it looks like the places are fairly spread out — so we would have gotten a random sample from the population of the trees.

Sam, John, and Christina; the three of them computed the 95% confidence interval of the true mean based on their sample statistics. They found their intervals to be different.

Let’s look at all the 40 confidence intervals. Now that I have the data from you all, I will show you how to do it in R. Essentially, I will take each one of your data, compute the sample statistics and use them to compute the respective confidence intervals. We have 40 different samples, so we will get 40 different confidence intervals — each interval is a statement about the truth. If you remember what we have been discussing about the confidence intervals, for a 95% confidence level,

There is a 95% probability of selecting a sample whose confidence interval will contain the true value of .

In other words, approximately 95% of the 40 samples (38 of them) may contain the truth. 5% (2 of them) may not contain the truth.

Let’s see who is covering the truth and who is not!

I want you all to work out the code with me. Here we go.

First, we will read the data file into R workspace.

# Reading the tree data file from the students #  students_data = read.csv("students_data.csv",header=T)

Next, use the following lines to compute the confidence interval for each student. I am essentially repeating the computation of sample mean, sample standard deviation and the confidence intervals, in a loop, 40 times, one for each student.

#40 students went to collect data from random locations in NYC # #Each student collects 30 samples ##Each student develops the confidence intervals #  nstudents = 40 nsamples = 30  students = 1:nstudents alpha = 0.95 t = alpha + (1-alpha)/2  sample_mean = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) sample_sd = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1)  ci_t = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=2)  for(i in 1:nstudents)  {  ind = which(students_data$student_index == i) sample_data = students_data$tree_dbh[ind]    sample_mean[i] = mean(sample_data)  sample_sd[i] = sd(sample_data)    cit_lb = sample_mean[i] - qt(t,df=(n-1))((sample_sd[i]/sqrt(n)))     cit_ub = sample_mean[i] + qt(t,df=(n-1))((sample_sd[i]/sqrt(n)))    ci_t[i,] = c(cit_lb,cit_ub)  }

Now, let’s plot the 40 intervals to see them better. A picture is worth a thousand numbers. Use these lines. They explain themselves.

#Plot all the CIs #stripchart(ci_t[1,],type="l",col="green",main="",xlab="Diameter (inches)",xlim=c(15,30),ylim=c(1,nstudents))stripchart(sample_mean[1],add=T,col="green")for (i in 2:nstudents) {   stripchart(ci_t[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i)   stripchart(sample_mean[i],col="green", add=T, at = i) }

The students are overjoyed looking at the pretty image.

John: This is neat. All our intervals are different, owing to each one of us bringing a different random sample. How we know which one of us contains the truth and which one of us does not is still not clear.

Jenny: We can get a close approximation based on the principle of consistency.

As n approaches infinity, the sample estimate approaches the true parameter. We can take the full data record that you all brought, 1200 data points and compute the overall mean.

true_mu = mean(students_data$tree_dbh) While it is not exactly the true value, based on the idea of consistency, we can assume that it is converging to the true one. = 21.3575 inches. Look at this. # Truth Convergence Plot # true_mean = sample_mean for (i in 1:nstudents) { ind = which(students_data$student_index <= i)   true_mean[i] = mean(students_data$tree_dbh[ind]) }plot(true_mean,type="o",xlab="Increasing Sample",ylab="Convergence of the Sample Mean",font=2,font.lab=2,ylim=c(20,22)) My sixth sense and divine visions also tell me that this is converging to the truth! Now, we can check which of these intervals contains the true mean , 21.3575 inches. You can use this simple code to check. false_samples = students for (i in 1:nstudents) { if( (ci_t[i,1] > true_mu) || (ci_t[i,2] < true_mu) ) {false_samples[i]=1} else  {false_samples[i]=0} } false_ind = which(false_samples == 1) It looks like number 4 and number 26 are not covering the truth. Harry and Miguel. Let us point them out. Here, look at another pretty plot. The thick black vertical line is the truth, 21.3575 inches. The brown line is how the sample mean () is converging to the truth () as we collect more samples. Harry and Miguel stand out. That is 2 out of 40; 5%. # Plot all the CIs; now show the false samples # stripchart(ci_t[1,],type="l",col="green",main="",xlab="Diameter (inches)",xlim=c(15,30),ylim=c(1,nstudents)) stripchart(sample_mean[1],add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_t[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i) stripchart(sample_mean[i],add=T,col="green",at = i) } abline(v=true_mu,lwd=3) lines(true_mean,students,type="o",col="brown",cex=0.5) for (i in 1:length(false_ind)) { j = false_ind[i] stripchart(ci_t[j,],type="l",col="red",lwd=3, main="", add = T, at = j) stripchart(sample_mean[j],col="red", lwd=3, add=T, at = j) } text(16,4.6,"Harry") text(26,26.6,"Miguel") There is a 95% probability of selecting a sample whose confidence interval will contain the true value of . Miguel: What happens to the confidence interval when we compute it with larger sample sizes? I mean, what is the relationship between the confidence interval and sample size? Jenny: Look at the equation for the confidence interval of the population mean; . Theoretically, as n tends to infinity, the interval shrinks to 0 since the sample mean converges to the true mean. So, as n gets larger, the interval gets smaller. Let me show you how it works. Take our data, and, just as we computed the sample mean for increasing sample size to see the convergence, compute the confidence interval also at each step. # How does CI change with more sample size sample_mean_update = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) sample_sd_update = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) ci_t_update = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=2) for(i in 1:nstudents) { ind = which(students_data$student_index <= i) ns = length(ind) sample_data = students_data$tree_dbh[ind] sample_mean_update[i] = mean(sample_data) sample_sd_update[i] = sd(sample_data)cit_lb = sample_mean_update[i] - qt(t,df=(ns-1))((sample_sd_update[i]/sqrt(ns))) cit_ub = sample_mean_update[i] + qt(t,df=(ns-1))((sample_sd_update[i]/sqrt(ns))) ci_t_update[i,] = c(cit_lb,cit_ub) }  Now, we can plot these confidence intervals against increasing sample size to see what happens. Just remember that each interval is an interval that is based on an increased sample size than the previous. The first interval has 30 data points, the second one has 60 data points, the third one, 90, the fourth, 120 etc. # Plot all the CIs # stripchart(ci_t_update[1,],vertical=T,type="l",col="green",main="",ylab="Diameter (inches)",ylim=c(16,25),xlim=c(1,nstudents),xlab="Increasing Sample Size")stripchart(sample_mean_update[1],vertical=T,add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_t_update[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i,vertical=T) stripchart(sample_mean_update[i],col="green", add=T, at = i,vertical=T) } lines(students,true_mean,type="o",col="brown",cex=0.5) See how the interval gets smaller and smaller as the sample size increases. If we do this enough number of times, the interval vanishes — as we will approach the entire population. #### T or Z Christina: If we have a large sample, why can’t we use as the confidence interval for the true mean ? For a large sample size, we can assume s, the sample standard deviation of the large sample as . Jenny: Yes, we can do that. As n increases, the difference between T and Z is minimal. However, it is better to use t-distribution for confidence intervals of , so we don’t fall into traps. I will show those traps next week. ## Where is the Standard Deviation and Proportion Jenny: Can you follow the same logic and develop the confidence intervals for ? How many of you will cover the truth, how many of you will not? Again, approximately, 95% of the intervals will cover the true , i.e., roughly 38 of your intervals will have the truth, 2 will not. Check this out. alpha = 0.95u = alpha + (1-alpha)/2l = 1 - u sample_var = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1)ci_sd = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=2) for(i in 1:nstudents) { ind = which(students_data$student_index == i)  ns = length(ind)   sample_data = students_data$tree_dbh[ind] sample_var[i] = var(sample_data) chi_low = ((ns-1)sample_var[i])/qchisq(u,df=(ns-1)) chi_up = ((ns-1)sample_var[i])/qchisq(l,df=(ns-1)) ci_sd[i,] = c(sqrt(chi_low),sqrt(chi_up)) }true_sd = sqrt((sum((students_data$tree_dbh-true_mu)^2))/length(students_data$tree_dbh))# False samples #false_samples_sd = students for (i in 1:nstudents) { if( (ci_sd[i,1] > true_sd) || (ci_sd[i,2] < true_sd) ) {false_samples_sd[i]=1} else {false_samples_sd[i]=0} }false_sd_ind = which(false_samples_sd == 1)# Plot all the CIs; now show the false samples #stripchart(ci_sd[1,],type="l",col="green",main="CI on Standard Deviation",xlab="Diameter (inches)",xlim=c(5,15),ylim=c(1,nstudents))stripchart(sample_sd[1],add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_sd[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i) stripchart(sample_sd[i],add=T,col="green",at = i) } abline(v=true_sd,lwd=3) Jenny: Here all the intervals cover the truth, but, in the long-run, 95% of the intervals cover the truth. John: How about proportion? Jenny: Yes, can you all develop the confidence intervals for the proportion of damaged trees? I want you to use bootstrap confidence intervals for p instead of the one based on the assumption of normal distribution. So the students typed away a few lines of code to finally create this. # Confidence Interval of p # alpha = 0.95 u = alpha + (1-alpha)/2 l = 1 - u nboot = 1000 sample_p = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=1) ci_p_boot = matrix(NA,nrow=nstudents,ncol=2) for(i in 1:nstudents) { ind = which(students_data$student_index == i) ns = length(ind) sample_data = students_data$brnch_ligh[ind] sample_p[i] = length(which(sample_data=="Yes"))/ns bootstrap_replicate_proportion = matrix(NA,nrow=nboot,ncol=1) for (j in 1:nboot) { ind2 = 1:ns  bootstrap_ind = sample(ind2,ns,replace=T) bootstrap_sample_damage = sample_data[bootstrap_ind] bootstrap_replicate_proportion[j,1] = length(which(bootstrap_sample_damage=="Yes"))/ns } ci_p_boot[i,] = quantile(bootstrap_replicate_proportion,c(l,u)) } true_p = length(which(students_data$brnch_ligh=="Yes"))/length(students_data$brnch_ligh)# False samples # false_samples_p = students for (i in 1:nstudents) { if( (ci_p_boot[i,1] > true_p) || (ci_p_boot[i,2] < true_p) ) {false_samples_p[i]=1} else {false_samples_p[i]=0} } false_p_ind = which(false_samples_p == 1)# Plot all the CIs; now show the false samples # stripchart(ci_p_boot[1,],type="l",col="green",main="CI on Proportion",xlab="Proportion",xlim=c(0,0.5),ylim=c(1,nstudents)) stripchart(sample_p[1],add=T,col="green") for (i in 2:nstudents) { stripchart(ci_p_boot[i,],type="l",col="green",main="",add=T,at = i) stripchart(sample_p[i],add=T,col="green",at = i) } abline(v=true_p,lwd=3) for (i in 1:length(false_p_ind)) { j = false_p_ind[i] stripchart(ci_p_boot[j,],type="l",col="red",lwd=3, main="", add = T, at = j) stripchart(sample_p[j],col="red", lwd=3, add=T, at = j) } You can also check out their full code here. As the class comes to an end, Samantha looks fulfilled. “Wow, that is quite a day,” she said. “We covered many things today, but more importantly the true meaning of the confidence intervals. There is a 95% probability of selecting a sample whose confidence interval will contain the true value.” “Assuming our data is collected without any bias,” interjected Jenny. The students looked puzzled. “This week, I want you to go out and collect the data again, but this time, divide yourselves into boroughs. Eight of you will belong to team Manhattan and will collect tree data from Manhattan only. You will still collect data randomly but will do it only from Manhattan. Eight of you are team Queens and you collect data randomly from Queens. The other three teams, team Bronx, team Brooklyn, and team Staten Island will do the same in their boroughs. We will again have 30 trees each, and a total of 1200 trees.” So, the students go off on another mission. Some of them are still puzzled or rather have a “what difference does it make” face on them. Some of them are as usual excited to hug the trees again. We will all wait and see what they come up with. More fun with data. If you find this useful, please like, share and subscribe. You can also follow me on Twitter @realDevineni for updates on new lessons. ## Lesson 80 – Riding with confidence, in R: Week 1 Monday, February 11, 2019 In which Jenny shows her students how to compute and visualize confidence intervals in R, and sends them off on a task. “Did you know that the symbol of the department of parks and recreations is a cross between the leaf of the London plane and a maple leaf?” asked Jenny as she opened her high school data class. She volunteered to help 40 high school kids recently. The obvious response from the kids is no response. “It is,” she said. “More than 10% of the trees are London Planetrees. They grow up to 20 – 30 meters, with a trunk circumference of 3 meters.” She projected a map on the big screen. “These are the places I randomly selected to visit and record the diameter of the trunk of the London planetrees. You have this data in the handout. We will learn how to develop confidence intervals in R.” For your analysis in R, the data file can be downloaded from here.” ## Let’s Start with the Mean “Can someone tell me how we can get the confidence interval of the mean diameter?” she asked. John raised his hand to answer. “Yes, John, go ahead,” said Jenny. “The confidence interval for the true mean is . If the sample size n is very large, we can substitute the sample standard deviation s in place of the unknown . However, for small sample sizes, the sample standard deviation s is itself subject to error. It may be far from the true value of . So it is preferable to use t-distribution for the confidence interval of the mean since tends to a t-distribution with (n-1) degrees of freedom. So I would say that the confidence interval of the population mean is the interval .” “Excellent. Let’s all compute the 95% confidence interval of the mean diameter of the trunk of the London planetrees from the sample I gave you. The 95% confidence interval of the true mean diameter () is .” They all started calculating. Some of them pulled out t-tables to get the t-critical (), i.e., the quantile from the t-distribution corresponding to the upper tail probability of 0.025, and 29 degrees of freedom. Jenny stopped them. “Don’t compute the interval by hand. Let’s do it in R. “Read the data file first. I am assuming that you all have the file in the same folder that you set the working directory to.” # Read the data file -- Jenny's sample data #jenny_sample_data = read.csv("jenny_data.csv",header=T)nsamples = nrow(jenny_sample_data) “Did you notice that the file has seven columns? The diameter of the tree trunk is recorded in the first column, tree_dbh. I am sure you figured out what the other columns are, except maybe the column that reads brnch_ligh that has Yes or No as the inputs. We will get to that in a bit.” “Let’s compute the sample mean (), sample variance (), and the sample standard deviation ().” #statistics of the sample #jenny_samplemu = mean(jenny_sample_data$tree_dbh)jenny_samplevar = var(jenny_sample_data$tree_dbh)jenny_samplesd = sd(jenny_sample_data$tree_dbh)

“What you were about to look up from the t-table can be obtained using this command in R.”

qt(0.975,df=29)
[1] 2.04523

“The t-critical value is 2.04523.”

“We can write a few lines to compute the confidence interval for any level, and show them graphically.”

# Confidence interval of the mean using t-distribution #alpha = 0.95 # 95% confidence interval t = alpha + (1-alpha)/2n = nsamplescit_lb = jenny_samplemu - qt(t,df=(n-1))*((jenny_samplesd/sqrt(n))) cit_ub = jenny_samplemu + qt(t,df=(n-1))*((jenny_samplesd/sqrt(n)))ci_t = c(cit_lb,cit_ub)stripchart(ci_t,type="l",lwd=3,col="green",main="CI on Mean",xlab="Diameter (inches)")stripchart(jenny_samplemu,add=T,lwd=3,col="green")

“The sample mean () is 22.433 inches and the intervals extend out to 19.67 inches on the left and 25.20 inches on the right.”

āThere is a 95% probability of selecting this sample for which the confidence interval will contain the true value of .ā

The kids looked happy seeing the image on their screen.

## Next, let’s explore the Variance and the Standard Deviation

“Do you remember the equation for the confidence interval of the variance and the standard deviation?” Jenny asked.

Samantha wanted to answer.

“The confidence interval of the population variance is the interval . We can get the square roots of the confidence limits to get the confidence interval on the true standard deviation,” she said.

“The interval is called the confidence interval of the population standard deviation .”

Jenny was pleased. She has an outstanding cohort. They always come prepared.

“Yes. In our case, follows a Chi-square distribution with 29 degrees of freedom. The lower and upper critical values at the 95% confidence interval and can be obtained from the Chi-square table, or, as you guessed, can be computed in R using a simple command. Try these,” she said.

qchisq(0.975,df=29)
[1] 45.72229
qchisq(0.025,df=29)
[1] 16.04707

“Of course, we can automate this and make nice graphics for the intervals. Use this code.”

# Confidence interval of the variance and standard deviation using Chisq-distribution #u = alpha + (1-alpha)/2l = 1 - uchi_low = ((n-1)*jenny_samplevar)/qchisq(u,df=(n-1)) chi_up = ((n-1)*jenny_samplevar)/qchisq(l,df=(n-1))ci_var = c(chi_low,chi_up)ci_sd = c(sqrt(chi_low),sqrt(chi_up))stripchart(ci_var,type="l",lwd=3,col="green",main="CI on Variance",xlab="Diameter^2 (inches^2)")stripchart(jenny_samplevar,add=T,lwd=3,col="green")stripchart(ci_sd,type="l",lwd=3,col="green",main="CI on Standard Deviation",xlab="Diameter (inches)")stripchart(jenny_samplesd,add=T,lwd=3,col="green")

“The sample variance is 54.74 , with a lower bound of 34.72 and an upper bound of 98.92 . Notice how the intervals are not symmetric. Do you remember why?”

“The sample standard deviation is 7.40 inches. The 95% lower and upper bounds are 5.90, and 9.95 inches respectively.”

The kids spent a few minutes typing up the lines of code to get the intervals and make the graphics.

## Jenny continued the lesson.

“Now, look at the third column in the data file, brnch_ligh. When I measured the trunk circumference, I also noticed that, for some trees, there were branch problems caused by lights or wires. I recorded this as a “yes” or a “no” depending on whether or not there was a problem. Who would think to have nice colorful lights on the trees would be damaging š

Can one of you count through the sample and tell me what is the estimate of the proportion of trees () that are damaged.”

“0.1,” someone answered from the back.

“Great, now, that invisible person, can you tell me how we can compute the confidence interval of the true proportion?”

Christina it was. She answered, “the confidence interval for the true proportion p is , assuming that the estimate can be approximated by a normal distribution for a reasonably large sample size.”

“And, here is how you do that in R,” added Jenny, as she typed up these lines.

# Confidence interval of the proportion using z-distribution # jenny_sampleproportion = length(which(jenny_sample_data$brnch_ligh=="Yes"))/nsamplesz = alpha + (1-alpha)/2p_low = jenny_sampleproportion - qnorm(z)*sqrt((jenny_sampleproportion(1-jenny_sampleproportion))/(n))p_up = jenny_sampleproportion + qnorm(z)*sqrt((jenny_sampleproportion(1-jenny_sampleproportion))/(n))ci_p = c(p_low,p_up)stripchart(ci_p,type="l",lwd=3,col="green",main="CI on Proportion",xlab="Damage Proportion")stripchart(jenny_sampleproportion,add=T,lwd=3,col="green") “The sample estimated damage proportion () is 0.1 since there are 3 damaged trees in a sample of 30 trees. The lower bound and the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval are -0.007 and 0.207, symmetric around 0.1,” Jenny interpreted as she looked at the plot and then at the kids. Some students were shaking their head in disagreement. They don’t like the fact that the confidence interval produced a negative value. What could have gone wrong? Christina jumped up at once. “Didn’t we learn last week that when p is at the boundaries, the sampling distribution exhibits skew and is not symmetric. Then it is not appropriate to approximate it to a normal distribution even for large sample sizes. We should perhaps develop the sampling distribution and the confidence intervals of the damage proportion using the idea of the Bootstrap?” “That is an astute observation Christina,” said Jenny. “Yes, since we have an estimate close to 0, it is better to develop the bootstrap confidence intervals. That will eliminate the errors induced due to inappropriate assumptions,” she added. ## Let’s do a Bootstrap in R “The basis for the bootstrap is that the sample data of 30 trees can be used to approximate the probability distribution function of the population. By putting a probability of 1/n on each data point, we use the discrete empirical distribution as an approximation of the population distribution f. It is easy enough to think of drawing numbers with replacement from these 30 numbers. Since each value is equally likely, the bootstrap sample will consist of numbers from the original data, some may appear more than one time, and some may not appear at all in a random sample.” Jenny explained the core concept of the bootstrap once again before showing them the code to do it. # Bootstrap confidence intervals ## nboot = 1000bootstrap_replicate_proportion = matrix(NA,nrow=nboot,ncol=1)bootstrap_replicate_mean = matrix(NA,nrow=nboot,ncol=1)bootstrap_replicate_var = matrix(NA,nrow=nboot,ncol=1)bootstrap_replicate_sd = matrix(NA,nrow=nboot,ncol=1)for (i in 1:nboot) { ind = 1:nsamples bootstrap_ind = sample(ind,nsamples,replace=T) bootstrap_sample_damage = jenny_sample_data$brnch_ligh[bootstrap_ind]      bootstrap_replicate_proportion[i,1] = length(which(bootstrap_sample_damage=="Yes"))/nsamples   bootstrap_sample_diam = jenny_sample_data\$tree_dbh[bootstrap_ind]   bootstrap_replicate_mean[i,1] = mean(bootstrap_sample_diam)   bootstrap_replicate_var[i,1] = var(bootstrap_sample_diam)   bootstrap_replicate_sd[i,1] = sd(bootstrap_sample_diam) }

“Here, I am drawing the bootstrap sample 1000 times, and, for each bootstrap sample, I am computing the proportion, the mean, the variance, and the standard deviation. So, in the end, I will have 1000 replicates of the damage proportion, the sample mean, sample variance and standard deviation — our sampling distributions.

Drawing a bootstrap in R is very simple. Just use the “sample” command.

ind = 1:nsamples
sample(ind,nsamples,replace=T)

I first create an indicator vector that has numbers 1 to 30. From this vector, I draw samples with replacement to get numbers from 1 to 30, some may appear more than once, some may not appear, depending on the sample. These are the trees that we selected as part of the bootstrap sample. From these trees, we take the diameter and whether or not it is damaged due to lights. The rest of the lines in the loop are just to compute the statistics from the bootstrap sample.” Jenny clearly explained here lines.

“Now, let’s plot the distribution of the damage proportion derived from the bootstrap samples. Type these lines.”

# Distribution of the sample proportion #hist(bootstrap_replicate_proportion,main="Bootstrap Replicates of the Damage Proportion",font=2,font.lab=2,xlab="Sample Proportion")ci_p_boot = quantile(bootstrap_replicate_proportion,c(0.025,0.975))abline(v=ci_p_boot,col="red")

“The 95% lower and the upper confidence limits are the 2.5th and the 97.5th percentiles of the sampling distribution. We can show them as red lines on the distribution.”

“Compare this to the previous confidence interval computed by assuming a normal distribution. We can see that the sampling distribution of the proportion is skewed and the interval is asymmetric. It is also not producing any negative values,” said Jenny as she showed a few more lines of tricks.

# compare with previous CI # stripchart(ci_p_boot,type="l",lwd=3,col="black",main="CI on Proportion",xlab="Damage Proportion")stripchart(jenny_sampleproportion,add=T,lwd=3,col="black")text(0.17,1.1, "Bootstrap Confidence Interval")stripchart(ci_p,type="l",add=T,at=0.7,lwd=3,col="green",main="CI on Proportion",xlab="Damage Proportion")stripchart(jenny_sampleproportion,at=0.7,add=T,lwd=3,col="green")

“I have a few more things in here to compute the bootstrap confidence interval of the mean, variance, and the standard deviation. You can check them out for yourself.

Jenny was preparing to end the class.

Can we know the true mean, variance and the proportion?” Someone asked.

Jenny was happy to hear this. She had planned an assignment for them exactly for this.

“From this sample alone, we cannot say. We can, however, say that there is a 95% probability of selecting this sample for which the confidence interval will contain the true value of , and . But, I want you to understand it by doing it yourself.

So, here’s the deal. This week, I want you to go out to the city and collect a sample of 30 trees. For each tree, I want you to measure the diameter and whether or not it is damaged. Each one of you will randomly select 30 locations in the city and bring back a sample. Make sure you more or less cover all the boroughs. In the end, we will have 40 different samples, each with 30 data points. We will have much fun analyzing that data, answering your questions, and getting a deeper understanding of the confidence intervals, in R.” Jenny ended her session by saying this.

So the kids left with excitement, to spend their spare time during the week collecting data for the trees in the City. You may encounter them this week. They might be hugging a tree or two. Don’t mistake them for some tree-hugging hippies. They are teaching you how to be confident with data.

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## Lesson 79 – Pull yourself up by your bootstraps

Over the past several lessons we have been learning about estimates, standard error of the estimates and confidence interval of the estimates.

We have been using the āsampleā to estimate the true value of the parameter. What we estimate from the sample will enable us to obtain the closest answer in some sense for the true unknown population parameter.

For example, the mean , variance , or proportion computed from the sample data are good guesses (estimates or estimators) of the mean , variance and proportion of the population.

We also know that when we think of an estimate, we think of an interval or a probability distribution, instead of a point value. The truth may be in this interval if we have good representative samples, i.e., if the sample distribution is similar to the population distribution.

### Assumptions or Approximations

In this inferential journey, to compute the standard error or to derive the confidence interval of the estimates, we have been making some assumptions and approximations that are deemed reasonable.

For example, it is reasonable to assume a normal distribution for the sample mean .

The sample mean is an unbiased estimate of the true mean, so the expected value of the sample mean is equal to the truth. .

The standard deviation of the sample mean, or the standard error of the estimate is .

This visual should be handy.

## —

To derive the confidence interval of the variance and standard deviation, we assumed that follows a Chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom.

Depending on the degrees of freedom, the distribution of looks like this.

## —

Most recently, we assumed that the estimate for proportion can be approximated by a normal distribution.

We derived the confidence interval of the population proportion as , based on this assumption.

Let’s examine this assumption once again.

In a sample of size n, proportion can be estimated as , where is the number of favorable instances for the thing we are measuring. can be approximated to a normal distribution since can be approximated to a normal distribution.

If we take Bernoulli random variables (0,1) for , , the number of successes, follows a Binomial distribution .

For a large enough sample size n, the distribution function of can be well-approximated by the normal distribution.

Let’s do some experiments and see if this is reasonable.

Look at this animation. I am showing the Binomial probability distribution function for p = 0.5 while n increases from 10 to 100.

It looks like an approximation to a normal distribution is very reasonable.

Now, look at these two animations that show the Binomial probability function for p = 0.1 and p = 0.95, i.e., when p is near the boundaries.

Clearly, the distributions exhibit skew and are not symmetric. An approximation to normal distribution even for large values of n, i.e., a big sample, is not appropriate.

How then can we be confident about the standard error and the confidence intervals?

For that matter, how can we derive the standard error or the intervals of a parameter whose limiting form is not known, or mathematically very complicated?

## Enter the Bootstrap

Bradley Efron invented a computer-based method, the bootstrap, for estimating the standard error and the confidence intervals of parameters. There is no need for any theoretical calculations or underlying assumptions regarding the mathematical structure or the type of the distribution of the parameter. Instead, bootstrap samples from the data are used.

#### What is a bootstrap sample?

Suppose we have a data sample, , a bootstrap sample is a random sample of size n drawn with replacement from these n data points.

Imagine we have the following data: 28.4, 28.6, 27.5, 28.7, 26.7, 26.3 and 27.7 as the concentration of Ozone measured in seven locations in New York City.

Assuming that each data value is equally likely, i.e., the probability of occurrence of any of these seven data points is 1/7, we can randomly draw seven numbers from these seven values.

Think that you are playing the game of Bingo and these seven numbers are chips in your rolling machine. The only difference is, each time you get a number, record it and put it back in the roller until you draw seven numbers. Sample with replacement.

Since each value is equally likely, the bootstrap sample will consist of numbers from the original data (28.4, 28.6, 27.5, 28.7, 26.7, 26.3 and 27.7), some may appear more than one time, and some may not appear at all in a random sample.

I played this using the roller. Here is a bootstrap sample from the original numbers.

As you can see, 28.4 appeared one time, 28.6, 27.5 and 28.7 did not appear, 26.3 appeared 2 times and 27.7 appeared 3 times.

Here are two more bootstrap samples like that.

#### Basis

The basis for bootstrap samples is that the sample data can be used to approximate the probability distribution function of the population. As you saw before, by putting a probability of 1/n on each data point, we use the discrete empirical distribution as an approximation of the population distribution .

Take a very simple example of rolling two dice in the game of monopoly. The true probability distribution of the count (dice 1 + dice 2) is based on the fact that there are 11 possible outcomes and the likelihood of each outcome is the ratio of the total ways we can get the number to 36. An outcome 2 can only be achieved if we get a (1,1). Hence the probability of getting 2 is 1/36.

Suppose we roll the dice a hundred times and record the total count, we can use the observed frequencies of the outcomes from this sample data to approximate the actual probability distribution.

Look at these 100 counts as outcomes of rolling two dice 100 times.

The frequency plot shown in black lines closely approximates the true frequency shown in red.

The empirical distribution is the proportion of times each value in the data sample occurs. The observed frequency is a sufficient statistic for the true distribution with an assumption that the data have been generated by random sampling from the true distribution . All the information of the true distribution is contained in the empirical distribution .

An unknown population distribution has produced the observed data . We can use the observed data to approximate by its empirical distribution and then use the empirical distribution to generate bootstrap replicates of the data. Since generated x, can be used to generate the bootstrap samples.

has given can be used to estimate will be used to generate a .

This is the basis.

#### Bootstrap Replicates

Once we generate enough bootstrap samples, we can use the estimators (formula to estimate the parameter) on these samples. For example, if we want to represent the true population mean , we can apply the equation for the sample mean on each of these bootstrap samples to generate bootstrap replicates of the mean.

If we want to represent the true population variance using an interval, we can apply on these bootstrap samples to generate replicates of the variance.

Likewise, if we want an interval for the true proportion, we apply on the bootstrap samples to get replicates of the proportion.

Each bootstrap sample will produce a replicate of the parameter. Efron prescribes anywhere between 25 to 200 bootstrap replications for a good approximation of the limiting distribution of the estimate. As the number of bootstrap replicates approaches infinity, the standard error as measured by the standard deviation of these replicates will approach the true standard error.

Let’s look at the bootstrap replicates of the sample mean and the sample standard deviation for the Ozone data for which we used the Bingo machine to generate the bootstrap samples. In a later coding lesson, we will learn how to do it using simple functions in RStudio.

For bootstrap sample 1, the sample mean is 27.26 and the sample standard deviation is 0.82.

For bootstrap sample 2, the sample mean is 27.61 and the sample standard deviation is 0.708.

I do this 200 times. Here is how the distribution of the sample mean () obtained from 200 bootstrap replicates looks like.

Here is the distribution of the sample standard deviation.

Like this, we can develop the intervals of any type of parameters by applying the relevant estimator on the bootstrap sample.

#### Bootstrap confidence interval

Finally, we can use the percentiles of the bootstrap replicates as the confidence limits of the parameter.

Take a 90% confidence interval for instance. From the bootstrap replicates, we can say that there is a 90% probability that the true mean will be between and , the 5th and the 95th percentiles of the bootstrap replicates.

For the Ozone example, the 90% confidence interval of the true mean is [27.114, 28.286] and the 90% confidence interval of the true standard deviation is [0.531 1.087].

Look at these plots.

We can define a bootstrap confidence interval for the true mean as .

There are many more uses of the bootstrap, and we will have much fun with it in due course.

But for today, let’s end with Efron’s statement on what other names were suggested to him for his method.

“I also wish to thank the many friends who suggested names more colorful than Bootstrap, including Swiss Army Knife, Meat Axe, Swan-Dive, Jack-Rabbit, and my personal favorite, the Shotgun, which, to paraphrase Tukey, “can blow the head off any problem if the statistician can stand the resulting mess.””

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## Lesson 78 – To Err is Human: Beware of simplicity

Mumble used t-distribution to estimate the 99% confidence interval of the true vehicle speed on I95.

As he mentioned to his boss, the sample mean () is 65 mph, the sample standard deviation (s) is 6 mph. For a sample of 50 vehicles (n = 50) the t-critical value denoted using for the 99% confidence interval is 2.679.

Using these values in the formula, we get

His boss immediately identified that the length of the confidence interval is 67.27 – 62.73 = 4.54 mph and that the margin of error is greater than 2 mph.

You know from last week’s lesson 77 that the margin of error e is half of the length of the confidence interval. Since is the estimate of the true mean , the error in estimating using can be defined as .

I am using and instead of and as Mumble will probably make the same simplified assumption that many estimators make; i.e., approximate the interval using normal distribution instead of t-distribution to estimate the sample size for a selected precision.

Half-length of the confidence interval is . The margin of error e should be within this for a confidence interval.

With as the bound, Mumble will solve this equation for n.

n is a function of the selected margin of error e, the standard deviation and the confidence interval .

For greater margins of error, the required sample size n is smaller for a selected confidence interval and standard deviation .

For larger variability in the data (i.e., larger values of ), the required sample size n increases for a fixed margin of error and specified confidence interval.

For greater confidence intervals (), the required sample size increases for a fixed margin of error and specified confidence interval.

For a chosen level of reliability of the estimate, i.e., the chosen confidence interval, if we know how precise we need the interval to be, i.e., if we know the margin of error, we can come up the required sample size.

Now, since his boss gave him an acceptable margin of error of 1 mph, Mumble will use eĀ = 1 in this equation.

He will make two main assumptions. As mentioned above, he will use instead of . In other words, he will use a z-critical of 2.58 instead of t-critical of 2.68. He will use the same value of 6 mph that he found originally as the sample standard deviation for .

With these assumptions, his new sample size is 240 vehicles. He has to go and collect data from 190 more vehicles in order to keep the margin of error within 1 mph.

The main reason he made these assumptions is that the problem needs a trial and error solution if he goes with t-critical and s since s and t-critical are dependent on n.

Look at how his sample size will vary with different levels of error for three different values of standard deviation, 5 mph, 6 mph, and 7 mph, still using z-critical instead of t-critical.

An increase in the sample size decreases the standard deviation. So by fixing the standard deviation at 6 mph, the one he obtained with 50 vehicles (smaller sample size), he is overestimating the new required sample size. Of course, some error still remains here since t-critical is wider than z-critical. Moreover, if the data is skewed with outliers or heavy tails, the estimate of sample standard deviation will be inflated and the resulting n will be large. Now, if the cost of collecting more data is not an issue, Mumble will probably not be that worried about this level of error.

Nevertheless, Beware of the assumptions. A lot of simplification goes into it.

I hope there is a way for computing the confidence intervals of different parameters without making a lot of assumptions, .

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## Lesson 76 – What is your confidence in polls?

Looking at these two recent polls, one wonders which one is truer and what confidence we can have in polls.

Of course, that is a rhetorical question. The real question is if these polls are measuring proportions (or probability) of people agreeing to something, what is the confidence interval of the true proportion or probability.

For example, the first poll tells us that 16% of Americans overall said that they would like to permanently move to another country if they could. The second poll tells us that 59% of adults in the US believe that 2019 will be a year of full or increasing employment. These two proportions are estimated from a selected sample of approximately 1000 U.S. adults. If so, what would be the confidence interval for the true proportion of all Americans who would answer these questions?

In lessons 71 to 75, we learned how to derive the confidence interval of the true mean, true variance, and true standard deviation, i.e., the population mean and population variance and standard deviation.

There are many applications, as these example polls, that require estimation of proportions or the probability of occurrence of events. We already know that the maximum likelihood estimator of p, the probability of an event is where r is the number of successes (times the event happened) in a sample of size n. In other words, the probability can be estimated as the proportion of occurrence in a Bernoulli sequence.

If is the estimate of the proportion, with a few assumptions, we can derive the confidence interval of the true proportion p.

Let’s learn how to do this using a simple polling exercise.

Assume that we want to estimate through a poll, the proportion of people who want to move out of the U.S. It will not be possible to ask everyone whether or not they will move out. However, we can take a sample, i.e., select a subset of the population and ask them for their preference.

In a sample of size n, the preference of the people can be represented by Bernoulli random variables where if a person wants to move out and 0 otherwise. If , the proportion of people who wish to move out can be estimated as .

By now, you must be familiar that is a random variable since the estimate can change with a change in the sample. What assumption can we make for the distribution function of this random variable?

Since is the sum of n independent random variables, for a large enough sample size n, the distribution function of can be well-approximated by the normal distribution. Further, since is a linear function of , the random variable can also be assumed to be normally distributed.

We can standardize and relate it to the standard normal distribution Z.

Before we proceed to derive the confidence interval, we should first derive the expected value and the variance of .

Expected Value

Since is a Bernoulli distribution,

Variance

So,

Confidence Interval of

Now, if we are interested in the 95% confidence interval of the true estimate p, we can use the standardized version of to say that there is a 95% probability that the standard normal variable is between -1.96 and 1.96.

We can rearrange this to obtain,

We can use in place of p for the variance term.

This interval is called the 95% confidence interval of the population proportion p. The interval itself is random since it is derived from . A different sample will have a different and hence a different interval or range.

There is a 95% probability that this random interval contains the true value of p.

Put another way, if we use this method to estimate the confidence interval of p for a large number of samples we can expect that in about 95% of the samples the true value of p will be within the confidence interval obtained from the sample.

Let’s now compute the 95% confidence interval for the proportions we saw in the two polls. 16% of Americans overall said that they would like to permanently move to another country if they could. 59% of adults in the US believe that 2019 will be a year of full or increasing employment. These two proportions are estimated from a selected sample of approximately 1000 U.S. adults.

95% confidence interval for the proportion of people who want to move out of the U.S.

is the 95% confidence interval of the true proportion.

95% confidence interval for the proportion of people that believe that 2019 will be a year of full or increasing employment.

is the 95% confidence interval of the true proportion.

We can generalize this to any confidence level by defining a confidence interval for the true proportion p as

Keep in mind that the main assumption behind this is that the estimate can be approximated by a normal distribution for a reasonably large sample size.

How do we know what size of the sample is sufficient? In the first graphic that showed the polls, I highlighted margin of errors. Can you guess what that is?

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